Was it a Coup or a ‘Sham’? Understanding Guinea-Bissau’s Military Takeover
Military takeovers aren’t new in Guinea-Bissau, which has faced at least nine coups since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974. However, when military officers announced their control last Wednesday, skepticism arose from analysts and political figures alike. The hallmark signs of a coup were prominently displayed: gunfire near the presidential palace, the arrest of President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, and military personnel addressing the nation on state television. Yet, doubts lingered, with notable voices like Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko and former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan suggesting that Embaló may have orchestrated the takeover himself.
What Led to the Controversial Coup?
Just three days before the military takeover, Bissau-Guineans participated in a presidential election, where Embaló, 53, sought re-election against his main rival Fernando Dias da Costa, supported by former Prime Minister Domingos Pereira. Pereira was disqualified from the race after allegedly filing his candidacy late. The much-anticipated announcement of election results was scheduled for Thursday—the day after the coup.
On the coup day, gunfire erupted in Bissau, and Embaló reported to French outlet Jeune Afrique that he was detained in the palace. Subsequently, military officers claimed their action was necessary to prevent a plot involving unnamed politicians allegedly supported by a notorious drug lord. Notably, they rejected the label of coup.
Scepticism Surrounding the Takeover
Doubts regarding the authenticity of the coup abound, with civil society groups and West African politicians questioning the military’s narrative. After his release, Embaló flew to Senegal, a move that sparked suspicion among many, including PAIGC official Flávio Baticã Ferreira, who remarked on the unusually relaxed manner of his departure. Jonathan echoed these sentiments, stating it appeared not to meet typical expectations of a coup, calling it, for lack of a better term, a “ceremonial coup.”
Moreover, the appointment of General Horta N’Tam as the new military leader raised eyebrows, as he was considered a close ally of Embaló.
Why Might a Coup be Fabricated?
Critics have accused Embaló of staging coup attempts to suppress dissent—a claim he has continually denied. Following a coup plot in December 2023, Embaló disbanded parliament and hasn’t allowed a legislature since. Analysts suspect that last week’s events were orchestrated to prevent unfavorable election outcomes from being publicized. Political tensions, particularly the disqualification of Pereira from the presidential race, likely contributed to the military’s intervention.
Who Now Leads Guinea-Bissau?
General Horta N’Tam, formerly the chief of staff, has assumed the presidency with a commitment to a one-year transitional period, appointing 23 ministers and five secretaries of state. Meanwhile, Embaló has since departed to Congo-Brazzaville, displeased by Senegal’s Prime Minister labeling the coup a “sham.” Dias, who claims he escaped arrest, has sought asylum in Nigeria.
Public Reaction
Protests erupted in Bissau demanding the release of Pereira and the publication of election results. Civil society groups have called for a general strike and civil disobedience to affirm electoral integrity. The public response remains divided, with voices both in favor of and against the military regime. Local resident Suncar Gassama expressed that he would support military governance if it improves living conditions, while former MP Ferreira described the mood as “tense,” indicative of uncertainty for Guinea-Bissau’s future.