One General, One Mathematician: The Men Competing for Power in Two African Elections
Voters in Guinea and the Central African Republic (CAR) are gearing up to elect their presidents on Sunday, embarking on a potentially pivotal journey for their nations. With seven-year terms at stake, both elections may lead to run-off ballots. However, the incumbents are expected to secure victory right away, particularly with predictions indicating they will receive more than 50% of the vote. The narratives, though, diverge significantly between the two countries.
Central African Republic: A Mathematician’s Ambitions
– Overview of the CAR: The Central African Republic is one of Africa’s poorest nations, grappling with chronic instability fueled by various armed groups pursuing local grievances and political ambitions. Intervention from African forces, France, and UN peacekeepers from 2013 to 2016 was crucial in preventing deeper inter-communal violence.
– Governance Challenges: The national government in Bangui struggles to assert authority in remote regions. Despite these challenges, multi-party politics persists, showing a degree of tolerance for opposition.
– Recent Developments: Encouragingly, significant rebel groups are engaging in the peace process, disarming and demobilizing. The country has also established a pioneering special court for human rights crimes.
President Faustin-Archange Touadéra: A Mathematician Turned Politician
– Background: President Touadéra, originally a mathematician and former university vice-chancellor, transitioned into politics as prime minister under coup leader François Bozizé. His election as president marked a compromise candidate emerging from a post-conflict landscape.
– Political Evolution: Now serving his second term, Touadéra has taken a more partisan stance, pushing for constitutional reforms to abolish term limits, allowing him to run again. This has led to a boycott by much of the opposition, although notable rival Anicet-Georges Dologuélé has been permitted to participate.
Guinea: The General’s Path to Power
– Overview of Guinea: In a stark contrast, Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya, the leader of the September 2021 coup that removed President Alpha Condé, is positioning himself to become a constitutionally elected ruler.
– Campaign Dynamics: While Doumbouya faces eight challengers, he has dominated the political scene, with his image prominently displayed across Conakry, Guinea’s capital. Opponent Cellou Dalein Diallo, a major figure in Guinea’s political landscape, has been barred from the election.
– Regional Reactions: The return of an elected government in Guinea is welcomed by the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), which supports economic integration and democracy among its members. The bloc faced challenges following the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger due to military regimes defying calls for civilian leadership.
A Transitional Landscape
– Doumbouya’s Unique Approach: While maintaining relations with Mali’s junta, Doumbouya has undertaken a constitutional review, setting the stage for the election, even if it was delayed longer than Ecowas hoped. His methods diverge from other regimes in the region, as he maintains positive ties with Western governments, particularly France.
– International Perspective: Despite a troubling human rights record during his rule, Doumbouya earned goodwill for addressing the infamous 2009 stadium massacre. The muted international response to his actions contrasts sharply with the focus on stability in the region.
Conclusion: Looking Ahead
Both Faustin-Archange Touadéra in the CAR and Mamadi Doumbouya in Guinea are navigating complex political terrains as they vie for power. While stability and governance are at the forefront, underlying issues remain prevalent. The world watches closely as these elections unfold, with the hope that the choices made will lead to a more prosperous and stable future for both nations.