Iran Has Had Protests Before: Will This Time Be Different?
While mass protests in Iran may still lead to sudden political changes, the more pressing question is what will happen in the medium and long term. Could this be the pivotal moment for the Iranian populace?
What Sets This Protest Apart?
Recent protests in Iran echo previous uprisings, yet several factors suggest that this moment could be different:
– Economic Hardship: Iran’s economy has deteriorated significantly, with rampant inflation causing widespread struggles among the population. The government offered minimal financial relief—approximately $7 per month—which only intensified public anger.
– External Threats: The so-called Axis of Resistance, once a deterrent against external attacks, has weakened, particularly in Lebanon and Syria. The specter of military strikes from the U.S. and Israel looms large, especially after recent strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear sites.
– Vulnerability of the Regime: Experts like Daniel Sobelman from Hebrew University posit that the regime appears increasingly vulnerable. Despite closing off internet access, reports indicate that government forces have resorted to violence against unarmed protesters, contributing to a rising death toll, which a senior Iranian health official indicated could be around 3,000 since protests began.
What Has Remained Static?
While the landscape has shifted, certain characteristics of the regime persist:
– Lack of Internal Fracturing: Historical changes often occur when key internal power brokers abandon the ruling government. So far, there are scant signs of such fractures within the Iranian security apparatus. Mona Tajali, a visiting scholar at Stanford University, notes that while lower-level militia members may hesitate to open fire on protesters, there’s no clear indication of a significant split within the regime.
– Persistent Loyalty among Security Forces: Despite instances of violence against protesters, many in the security forces remain loyal to the regime. The fear of future repercussions—ranging from prosecution to vigilante justice—can foster a desire to uphold the theocratic regime.
– Limited Economic Leverage by Protesters: Unlike successful movements elsewhere, such as South Africa’s anti-apartheid strikes, Iran’s current protests lack severe economic disruption potential. Although bazaar merchants have taken part in demonstrations, their influence pales compared to key sectors like the oil and gas industry, which remains relatively unaffected.
The Future is Uncertain
Ultimately, while mass protests in Iran possess the potential to spark political change, the question of whether genuine transformation will occur—especially in the long term—remains unanswered. The regime’s severe crackdown on dissent will not address the root grievances of the populace. As regional vulnerabilities persist, the conditions for future unrest are likely to arise.
Even if the current protests do not yield immediate change, the underlying issues remain, all but assuring that, whether days, months, or years from now, a new trigger for demonstration may ignite once again.