What a Seventh Term for 81-Year-Old Leader Means for Uganda
Supporters of Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni view his decisive win in the recent election as a testament to his four-decade rule. He secured 72% of the vote—a near-record, just shy of his 74% from Uganda’s first direct presidential election in 1996. This result reinforces the belief among Museveni’s backers that, at 81, he still commands the loyalty of the majority of Ugandans, having risen to power as a rebel commander in 1986, ending Milton Obote’s regime.
Controversy Surrounding Museveni’s Victory
However, Museveni’s chief rival, former pop star Bobi Wine, has branded the election results as fake, claiming he was forced into hiding following a security raid on his home. Museveni focused his campaign on his decade-long record, emphasizing his contributions to political and economic stability amid global uncertainty. He promises to elevate Uganda to middle-income status by 2030, a goal that his supporters regard as a fitting legacy as he prepares for what may be his final term.
Oil Industry as a Catalyst for Growth
The president perceives Uganda’s budding oil industry as essential to achieving this vision. Throughout the campaign, he assured voters that once exports commence, the economy would experience double-digit growth. Museveni has set October as the target for initiating crude oil exports through a 1,443 km pipeline to the Indian Ocean port of Tanga in Tanzania.
Despite his advanced age, Museveni aims to project a sense of vitality and command. At a major rally, he claimed to have visited all 140 electoral constituencies in Uganda. Yet, his team abruptly canceled several campaign events, citing unspecified state duties, which many interpreted as a sign of potential health issues. The ensuing speculation about his physical condition has been fueled by subsequent gaps in his public schedule.
The Shift in Political Landscape
For Bobi Wine, the election results represented a significant setback; his vote share plummeted from 35% in 2021 to 25% this time, even with Uganda’s youthful demographic traditionally aligned with him. Wine claims the electoral process was neither credible nor fair, citing frequent disruptions of his rallies and allegations of ballot stuffing, albeit lacking concrete evidence.
After two failed presidential attempts, questions linger about Wine’s political future. He faces the risk of joining the ranks of many opposition figures across Africa, whose popularity wanes under sustained repression, leaving them permanently on the sidelines of power.
During the campaign, Wine epitomized the energy and impatience of Uganda’s younger generation, while Museveni positioned himself as the seasoned patriarch, promising stability. According to official—and disputed—results, voters ultimately preferred the latter.
The Question of Succession
As analysts contemplate Uganda’s political future, the focus often shifts to the question of presidential succession: how and when Museveni will step down. Journalist Allan Kasujja cautions against becoming overly fixated on this issue. He argues that political change in Uganda is gradual rather than sudden and has been in motion for some time.
In this context, the latest election appears less a moment of change and more a ritual embedded in the political calendar, legitimizing deeper currents within the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the state machinery it dominates. These undercurrents became evident during a cabinet reshuffle by Museveni in March 2023 and were unmistakable during the August 2025 elections for the NRM’s decision-making body, indicating a shift towards succession politics rather than robust competition with the opposition.
A New Era of Leadership Dynamics
The factional struggles within the NRM became increasingly apparent, revealing a regime more focused on navigating succession than engaging with suppressed political opponents. This shift highlights the emergent influence of Army Chief Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba—Museveni’s son and potential successor—who has gained prominence amid a leadership realignment that replaced veteran party figures with loyalists, many without the historical credentials of the original insurgency.
Reports indicate that authority at State House has increasingly decentralized; decisions once made by Museveni are now filtered through a tight inner circle of relatives and close associates. His eldest daughter oversees his daily schedule, while his half-brother manages relations with foreign dignitaries. Notably, security matters are now exclusively in the purview of Gen. Kainerugaba, reflecting the military’s longstanding influence in Ugandan politics.
Implications for Uganda’s Future
This concentration of power suggests that Uganda’s future trajectory may be profoundly influenced by Museveni’s family, even if his son does not yet hold an official title. The implications of this transition may redefine the political landscape as the nation grapples with the legacies of its long-serving leader.
As Museveni embarks on a seventh term, many are left to ponder not just what this means for Uganda today, but how it will shape the country’s future amid the complex interplay of power, loyalty, and generational change.