The Devastating Conflict Where Both Sides Have Reasons to Keep Fighting
Snapshots of Despair and Hope in Sudan
On February 1st, a Sudan Airways plane adorned with yellow, blue, and white touched down at Khartoum International Airport, marking only the second commercial flight to land since the onset of civil war in 2023. As 160 passengers disembarked, their joy was palpable—they cheered, embraced, and snapped selfies. Yet, this fleeting moment of celebration stands in stark contrast to the ongoing devastation that continues to ravage the country.
In his January address, Sudan’s Prime Minister, Kamil Idris, proclaimed 2026 as “the year of peace.” However, this declaration feels increasingly hollow against the backdrop of a conflict that has morphed into a cataclysm of destruction, death, and widespread human rights violations. Almost three years after hostilities erupted in April, the scars of war are still freshly visible.
Ground Zero: The Impact of Civil War
During a visit to Khartoum, I witnessed the remnants of devastation: unexploded munitions littered airport tarmacs; government ministries and banks lay blackened and charred; and a once-majestic presidential palace had been reduced to ruins. The violence had exiled the government to Port Sudan, a relatively safer haven along the Red Sea. The civil war has not only transformed lives but also displaced a staggering 12 million people, as reported by the United Nations.
Human Stories Behind the Numbers
During a subsequent trip to an army-controlled tent camp, I met survivors from el-Fasher, where mass killings and sexual violence had taken place. The takeover of the city by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) was a significant victory, but the ensuing atrocities triggered international outrage, momentarily raising hopes for intervention. Sadly, such hope has faded, leaving the world distracted by conflicts elsewhere.
Roots of the Conflict: A Power Struggle
Sudan has grappled with conflict for much of the last 70 years, but never before has war so devastatingly severed its core. The current strife began as a power struggle between Sudan’s Armed Forces and the RSF, a paramilitary group once loyal to former military ruler Omar al-Bashir. After his ousting in 2019, tensions erupted into violence led by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemedti, and Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.
Initially, many viewed the conflict as an internal battle within the security apparatus. However, as the war dragged on, both sides cultivated narratives rooted in deep-seated grievances, including corruption, cronyism, and a staggering economic divide.
Existential Stakes for Both Sides
Both factions, now viewing the conflict as a question of survival, have weaponized ethnic divisions—drawing stark lines between nomadic Arabs who support the RSF and Nile Valley Arabs, who have historically ruled. This fuels a cycle of violence, including RSF-led massacres in Darfur, for which the UN has suggested characteristics of genocide.
The Foreign Stakes: International Involvement
Adding complexity to this volatile situation, foreign powers have vested interests in the outcome. Documented evidence suggests the UAE supports the RSF with weaponry—an allegation they firmly deny. Meanwhile, Sudan’s military has received backing from Egypt and Qatar, complicating prospects for peace.
Roadmap to Peace: Overcoming Major Obstacles
Many believe that negotiating a peace agreement will require intervention from the Quad nations: the United States, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt. While the RSF has tentatively accepted a humanitarian truce proposed by the Quad, the situation still feels far from resolution. Burhan insists that any agreement comes with conditions that resemble a surrender from the RSF—an untenable position for both sides.
Key Points for Consideration:
– Both factions see the war as an existential struggle, deepening entrenchment.
– Achieving peace means addressing long-standing systemic issues, such as corruption and economic disparity.
– A multifaceted approach is necessary, addressing the humanitarian crisis while also considering local ethnopolitical dynamics.
The Difficult Path to Ceasefire
While a ceasefire could offer brief relief for the 25 million people facing acute food shortages, it would not guarantee lasting peace. The deeply rooted divisions and mistrust between the warring factions present insurmountable barriers to reconciliation. Analysts warn that without addressing foundational issues and providing a forward path for accountability, the risk of renewed conflict remains high.
Conclusion: The Need for Concerted Action
The ongoing conflict in Sudan is deeply intertwined with local and international dynamics that complicate the path toward peace. As the fighting drags on, the specter of balkanization looms large over the nation. Neighbors are already feeling the repercussions, sheltering refugees while risks of spillover violence grow.
With each day that passes, the stakes increase, not only for Sudan but for the wider region. A coalition of both internal and external actors must prioritize a viable solution, one that recognizes the complex interplay of historical grievances, ethnic divides, and the urgent humanitarian crisis. In the end, sustainable peace isn’t just desirable; it’s essential for the stability of Sudan and its neighbors.