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Past the Peak? How Trump’s Grip on Power is Slipping
As U.S. President Donald Trump nears the end of his first year back in the White House, polling data reveals a concerning trend: his political momentum appears to be waning. While he remains a formidable presence within the Republican Party, recent surveys from Reuters/Ipsos and NBC News suggest that his approval ratings are nearing their lowest levels this term. Alarmingly, this decline is not just among independents or Democrats; even support among Republicans and his once-solid MAGA base is showing signs of erosion. This raises a vital question: Has Trump passed the peak of his political influence?
The Reuters/Ipsos Warning Signs
A recent three-day Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted online and concluding last Sunday, offers a sobering view for the White House. Key findings include:
– Only 39% of the 1,016 U.S. adults surveyed approve of Trump’s overall job performance, down from 41% earlier in December.
– This marks a significant drop from Trump’s robust 47% approval rating in January 2025, showcasing a steady decline in popularity, particularly regarding economic issues.
– Just 33% of respondents approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, his lowest rating on this crucial topic this year.
– Economic anxiety is evident, exacerbated by high inflation hovering around 3%, well above the healthier 2% benchmark.
– Trump’s approval rating concerning the cost of living has dropped to 27%, indicating rising frustration over household expenses.
Cracks in Republican Support
At first glance, Trump’s support among Republicans remains high at 85%, unchanged from earlier in December. However, a deeper analysis reveals:
– Approval of Trump’s economic management among Republicans has fallen to 72%, marking its lowest point this year and down from 78%.
– Historically, Trump’s grip on the party has relied on perceived effectiveness, especially in economic matters. This perception is weakening.
NBC News Poll Highlights
The national perspective is further supported by an extensive NBC News poll conducted between November 20 and December 8. Results show:
– Trump’s approval stands at 42%, with 58% disapproving, a three-point decline since April.
– The percentage of Americans who strongly approve of Trump has decreased to 21%, down from 26% in April.
– Conversely, strong disapproval rose from 42% to 44%, indicating a shift in public sentiment.
Economic concerns are paramount, with many voters expressing persistent anxiety about rising costs, from groceries to holiday expenses. These issues have significantly impacted public confidence in Trump’s leadership.
A Diminishing MAGA Base
Polls reveal crucial changes within the Republican coalition. The decline in strong support for Trump since April is particularly noticeable among:
– Republicans overall, with strong approval dwindling to 35%, down from 38%.
– Among self-identified MAGA supporters, strong approval has fallen from 78% to 70%.
Significantly, the Republican Party has shifted from a majority identifying with the MAGA movement to an even split between traditional Republicans and MAGA-aligned voters, suggesting that Trump’s core base is contracting.
A Slipping Grip on Power?
These polling trends are beginning to influence elite perceptions. The Financial Times recently pondered, “Has Trump passed his peak?” A CNN analysis echoed this sentiment, noting a growing willingness among Republicans to challenge Trump, with some increasingly viewing him as a lame duck.
Recent incidents highlight this shift, such as House Republicans defying Trump over the release of important documents and state lawmakers rejecting his demands on congressional maps. While Trump still commands a significant following among Republicans, the data suggests his firmly anchored grip on power is loosening.
Conclusion
The evidence from both Reuters/Ipsos and NBC News indicates that Trump may indeed be past his political prime. With approval ratings approaching their lowest levels of the year, widespread economic dissatisfaction, and a declining enthusiasm within his base, the once-assured aura of his leadership is fading. Trump may not be politically finished, and his influence remains considerable. However, signs point to a potential downturn from the peak of popularity he once enjoyed.