What a Seventh Term for 81-Year-Old Leader Means for Uganda
For supporters of Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, his recent victory in the election is a testament to his four-decade-long leadership. He secured 72% of the vote, coming close to his highest-ever tally of 74% in Uganda’s inaugural direct presidential election in 1996. This victory reinforces the 81-year-old’s assertion that he retains the backing of the majority of Ugandans, having taken power as a rebel commander in 1986, which ended the Milton Obote regime.
– Election Dynamics: Despite Museveni’s triumph, his main rival, the charismatic former pop star Bobi Wine, dismissed the outcome as fake, claiming he has gone into hiding following a raid on his home by security forces.
– Campaign Focus: Museveni emphasized his record, boasting about providing political and economic stability amidst global uncertainty. He pledged to elevate Uganda to middle-income status by 2030, describing it as a fitting legacy as he embarks on what may be his seventh and final term next year. He highlighted Uganda’s emerging oil sector as crucial to achieving this goal, promising double-digit economic growth once exports commence.
– Oil Export Targets: The president has set October as the target for the first crude oil exports via a 1,443 km pipeline to the Indian Ocean port of Tanga in Tanzania.
Despite his age, Museveni has portrayed vigor and control. At a significant rally, he declared that he had visited all of Uganda’s 140 electoral constituencies. Nevertheless, the abrupt cancellation of several campaign events in early October raised concerns about his health, leading many to speculate about the octogenarian’s vitality.
Bobi Wine faced a significant setback, seeing his vote share drop from 35% in 2021 to 25% this election, despite Uganda’s youthful populace, which is often viewed as his natural demographic. He contends the election lacked credibility, citing significant disruptions to his rallies by security forces. While he claimed instances of ballot stuffing, he has yet to provide evidence, and the authorities have remained silent on his allegations.
– Political Implications for Wine: With two unsuccessful presidential attempts behind him, questions linger about Wine’s future in politics. He risks a fate similar to many African opposition leaders whose influence has waned due to sustained repression.
During the campaign, Wine captured the energy and impatience of Uganda’s youth, while Museveni positioned himself as the seasoned patriarch, the guarantor of stability. Ultimately, the official but disputed results show voters preferred Museveni.
The Future of Uganda: Leadership and Succession
Those keen on Uganda’s future often fixate on the presidential succession — the timing and manner of Museveni’s potential departure. Ugandan journalist and political analyst Allan Kasujja cautions against an overemphasis on this issue.
– Gradual Change: Change in Uganda, especially political change, does not happen suddenly, Kasujja notes. It happens gradually, and that process has been under way for some time.
Seen through this lens, the recent election appears less a transformative moment than a customary exercise in the political calendar, legitimizing deeper shifts within Museveni’s ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party and the broader state structure.
– Internal Party Dynamics: Notably, significant shifts became evident during a cabinet reshuffle in March 2023 and were solidified in the August 2025 NRM elections. This internal struggle went beyond ordinary competition, highlighting a regime increasingly focused on succession politics rather than engagement with the opposition, which has either been suppressed or co-opted.
The election also illustrated the rising influence of army chief Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Museveni’s son, viewed as a potential successor. Influential figures from the party’s old guard are being supplanted by newer allies seen as loyal to Kainerugaba.
According to sources close to the presidency, authority at State House is becoming more decentralized. Decisions previously made by Museveni are now filtering through a small inner circle composed of family and long-time associates.
– Concentration of Power: This includes the oversight of daily affairs by his eldest daughter, Natasha Karugire, while his half-brother and son-in-law manage diplomatic relations and economic policy, respectively. Notably, for the first time in Uganda’s history, all security matters are under the purview of Gen Kainerugaba.
Given the military’s longstanding role in Ugandan politics — a legacy from Museveni’s rise to power through armed struggle — this concentration of authority hints at an evolving political landscape where Museveni’s son, although not yet head of state, plays a pivotal role.
In conclusion, while Museveni begins his seventh term, the implications are profound. Uganda’s political future is increasingly intertwined with the dynamics within Museveni’s family and the military, setting the stage for potential changes in governance and leadership dynamics in the years to come.