What Could Happen If the US Strikes Iran? Here Are Seven Scenarios
The United States appears on the brink of a potential strike against Iran. While likely targets are fairly predictable, the consequences remain uncertain. If last-minute diplomatic efforts fail and President Donald Trump opts for military action, several scenarios could unfold.
1. Targeted Strikes Lead to Minimal Casualties and Democratic Transition
The US may execute limited, precise strikes against military facilities like those operated by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and associated paramilitary groups, including ballistic missile sites and nuclear installations. This optimistic outcome envisions a weakened Iranian regime being replaced by a functional democracy that could reintegrate into the international community. However, history suggests caution; prior Western interventions in Iraq and Libya resulted in prolonged instability rather than democratic governance. Even Syria, which experienced its revolution absent foreign military involvement, has had mixed outcomes.
2. Regime Survives but Moderates Its Policies
In this scenario, similar to the Venezuelan model, the US response might compel the Iranian regime to soften its hardline positions, albeit while remaining in power. This would involve curtailing its support for militant groups in the region and reducing its domestic nuclear ambitions. Unfortunately, such moderation seems unlikely given the Islamic Republic’s historical resistance to change after nearly half a century of governance.
3. Regime Collapse and Military Rule
Many believe that the most probable outcome is the collapse of the current regime, leading to military control. Despite widespread dissatisfaction and numerous protests, a deep-seated security apparatus remains invested in maintaining the status quo. Any chaos following US military strikes could see Iran governed by a military administration, potentially dominated by IRGC figures, capitalizing on the absence of effective civilian leadership.
4. Iranian Retaliation Against US Forces and Allies
Iran has made it clear that it would retaliate against any US assault. While it cannot match America’s military might, it possesses a range of ballistic missiles and drones, many of which are hidden in subterranean facilities. US bases in Bahrain and Qatar could become targets, as might critical infrastructure in allied nations like Jordan. The 2019 attack on Saudi Aramco illustrated Iran’s ability to inflict significant damage, raising alarms among neighboring Gulf Arab states.
5. Laying Mines in the Gulf
Following a US strike, Iran might resort to laying mines in strategic waterways, a tactic first employed during the Iran-Iraq War. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital chokepoint for global oil and natural gas supplies, with around 20% of the world’s LNG and a similar percentage of oil passing through it annually. Such a move would disrupt international trade and likely cause spikes in oil prices.
6. Sinking a US Warship
A more drastic scenario involves Iran launching a coordinated swarm attack on a US warship. Utilizing drones and fast attack boats in overwhelming numbers could potentially overwhelm US defenses. Although viewed as unlikely, the sinking of a US vessel would be a severe humiliation. Historical incidents, like the USS Cole attack and the USS Stark incident, underscore the vulnerabilities of US naval assets.
7. Chaos in the Wake of Regime Collapse
The disintegration of the Iranian regime could plunge the country into chaos, similar to the civil wars seen in Syria, Yemen, and Libya. Ethnic tensions among groups like Kurds and Baluchis may escalate into armed conflict as they seek to protect their communities in a power vacuum. Although many regional actors would welcome the end of the Islamic Republic—especially Israel, which views Iranian nuclear ambitions as an existential threat—nobody desires a humanitarian crisis involving 93 million people.
As the situation develops, one of the gravest concerns is that President Trump, bolstered by military strength on Iran’s borders, may feel compelled to act, potentially igniting a war with no clear objectives or end in sight.