Walmart (WMT) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter earnings for fiscal 2025 on Thursday morning, with analysts predicting continued growth in sales and profits. As the largest retailer in the U.S., Walmart’s performance carries significant weight in the retail sector, and investors are closely watching its earnings report to gauge the company’s outlook for the upcoming fiscal year. Here’s a closer look at what analysts are expecting from Walmart’s Q4 earnings and its prospects for 2025.
Strong Sales and Profit Growth Expected
Analysts are generally optimistic about Walmart’s performance, with most holding “buy” ratings on the stock. The retailer’s ability to drive sales and profitability during a challenging retail environment is expected to continue in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025. Walmart is expected to report revenue of $180.2 billion for the quarter, which would mark a nearly 4% year-over-year increase. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to reach $0.64, up 7% compared to the year-ago quarter.
The retailer’s strong performance is attributed to its ability to gain market share and meet consumer demand for a variety of products, from groceries to electronics. Walmart’s diversified offerings, competitive pricing strategy, and efficient supply chain continue to set it apart from its competitors.
However, if Walmart reports in line with analyst estimates, its quarterly revenue would fall short of Amazon’s (AMZN) recent earnings report. Amazon posted $187.8 billion in revenue for its most recent quarter, marking a significant gap between the two retail giants. While Walmart’s revenue is expected to be lower than Amazon’s, analysts still expect strong growth for the company.
Analyst Sentiment: Bullish on Walmart’s Performance
Despite the relatively modest price target increases, analysts remain largely bullish on Walmart. The stock has garnered 20 “buy” ratings among the 21 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha, with just one “hold.” Analysts have noted that Walmart is well-positioned to benefit from both its established brand and its recent investments in e-commerce, which have helped drive growth in recent years.
While Walmart’s stock price has already experienced a significant run-up over the past 12 months—rising by 85%—analysts remain confident that the company will continue to outperform expectations. The average price target for Walmart stock currently stands at $107.76, which is only about 4% above its closing price on Friday. This indicates that while analysts are optimistic, they are cautious about Walmart’s near-term upside potential following such a significant increase in its share price.
A Conservative Approach to Fiscal 2026
While analysts expect Walmart to beat Q4 estimates, there is a consensus that the company will maintain a conservative outlook for the upcoming fiscal year. Walmart has historically taken a cautious approach to its guidance, particularly in times of economic uncertainty. This trend is likely to continue as the company navigates potential headwinds from global trade policies, such as tariffs and deportation regulations, that could impact its supply chain and consumer behavior.
Morgan Stanley analysts wrote that, given the current macroeconomic uncertainty, the market is favoring large, well-established companies like Walmart that can withstand external pressures. Walmart’s scale and bargaining power give it a competitive advantage in the retail market, as it is better positioned to handle potential disruptions and pass on cost increases to consumers.
“Morgan Stanley analysts expect Walmart’s scale and highly automated supply chain to allow it to continue gaining market share, despite potential headwinds from tariff and deportation policies,” the firm stated in a recent note to investors.
The Growth Story: Walmart’s Market Share and E-Commerce Expansion
Walmart’s success in recent years can be attributed to its ability to adapt to changing consumer behavior, particularly in the realm of e-commerce. The company has heavily invested in its digital infrastructure, expanding its online presence and offering consumers the ability to shop across multiple platforms. Walmart’s digital sales growth has outpaced many competitors, positioning the company as a formidable player in the e-commerce space alongside Amazon.
Additionally, Walmart’s omnichannel strategy, which integrates in-store and online shopping experiences, continues to resonate with consumers looking for convenience. The company’s ability to fulfill online orders from physical stores, as well as its investments in delivery infrastructure, have given it an edge in a competitive retail landscape.
As Walmart continues to innovate and expand its product offerings, its market share in various categories is expected to keep rising. Analysts believe the retailer’s strong position in sectors like groceries, health and wellness, and home goods will help it weather any potential challenges in the coming year.
Expectations for Fiscal 2025 and Beyond
Looking ahead, Walmart is expected to face a mix of challenges and opportunities in fiscal 2025. On the one hand, the broader retail environment remains uncertain, with ongoing inflationary pressures and fluctuating consumer sentiment potentially affecting spending habits. On the other hand, Walmart’s dominant position in the market, along with its investments in automation and e-commerce, suggests that the company is well-equipped to continue growing its business.
While analysts expect Walmart to maintain conservative guidance for fiscal 2026, they remain optimistic about the retailer’s ability to meet and exceed expectations. As the company continues to gain market share and expand its digital capabilities, it is likely to remain a top pick for investors looking for exposure to the retail sector.
Conclusion: Walmart’s Strong Q4 and Long-Term Outlook
Walmart’s fourth-quarter earnings report is expected to reflect the company’s ability to generate strong sales and profit growth despite the challenges facing the retail sector. With an increasing number of analysts raising their price targets for Walmart stock, the retailer appears poised for continued success in 2025 and beyond. While analysts caution that Walmart’s outlook for the next fiscal year may be conservative, the company’s strong market position and ongoing investments in e-commerce make it a stock to watch in the coming months.
As Walmart continues to navigate the evolving retail landscape, its ability to adapt to consumer trends and remain competitive will be key to its long-term success.
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