Experts Question Bitcoin’s Trading Patterns Amid Market Uncertainty
Bitcoin (BTC) has remained range-bound between $92,400 and $106,500 since mid-December 2024, leaving investors and analysts puzzled. While significant institutional inflows have entered the market, BTC’s price movement appears to be unusually controlled. Some experts believe that price suppression could be at play, preventing Bitcoin from experiencing the expected breakout.
Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, addressed this concern during a panel at Consensus Hong Kong, stating that Bitcoin’s recent price action “doesn’t look natural at all.” He noted that BTC consistently peaks and then moves sideways instead of following its typical volatile patterns.
Despite the stagnation, long-term optimism remains high, with analysts predicting Bitcoin’s institutional adoption could extend for the next 10 to 20 years. However, current market conditions suggest that the influx of institutional capital has yet to fully materialize.
Why Isn’t Bitcoin’s Price Moving Despite Institutional Buying?
One of the biggest surprises in the market has been Bitcoin’s sluggish price movement, even as institutional buyers continue accumulating BTC. Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy, among other large firms, has been steadily buying Bitcoin, yet selling pressure persists.
According to Mow, the price stagnation suggests that someone must be offloading large amounts of BTC to counteract the demand from both institutional and retail investors. This contradicts previous bull market cycles, where Bitcoin typically surged in response to major institutional accumulation.
Some of the possible reasons behind Bitcoin’s price suppression include:
1. Structural Selling from Market Events
Bitcoin’s market faced major structural selling pressure in 2023 due to:
- Bankruptcies of crypto firms, such as FTX and Celsius, which liquidated large BTC holdings.
- Forced selling by hedge funds and institutions, which had to rebalance portfolios after market downturns.
While these pressures were expected to subside, the FTX bankruptcy repayment process is introducing new selling pressure in early 2025.
2. FTX Bitcoin Sales Impacting Price Action
The FTX repayment process is causing a unique supply-demand imbalance. The company is repaying creditors based on Bitcoin’s November 2022 price of $20,000—far below today’s levels.
As creditors receive Bitcoin at a much lower cost basis, many are choosing to sell their BTC for profits rather than holding long term. This creates consistent selling pressure in the market, preventing Bitcoin from making a sustained breakout.
“FTX’s Bitcoin sales, made at much lower prices, could explain why BTC’s price remains stuck,” Mow added.
3. Bitcoin ETFs and Institutional Capital Flow
A key factor in Bitcoin’s long-term price appreciation is the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in major financial markets. Analysts initially believed that these ETFs would drive massive demand from traditional investors, but the capital inflows have been slower than expected.
Although institutions have started investing in BTC ETFs, they are currently “dipping their toes” rather than making large allocations. Once ETF flows accelerate, Bitcoin’s price could start reflecting the true demand from the institutional side.
Market Reactions and Short-Term Price Outlook
Bitcoin’s price hit an all-time high of $109,000 in January following Donald Trump’s inauguration. However, BTC quickly fell back into its previous trading range, frustrating bullish investors.
In the two months leading up to October 2024, approximately 1.1 million Bitcoin were absorbed by large institutions—worth around $110 billion. Despite this, Bitcoin’s price failed to sustain significant upward momentum, further fueling speculation about market manipulation.
Short-Term Bearish Signals
Bitcoin recently dropped below $95,000, marking its lowest level in weeks. Analysts point to the following bearish indicators:
- Declining network activity: Fewer transactions suggest a slowdown in speculative interest.
- Reduced stablecoin inflows: A key liquidity driver for Bitcoin, stablecoin supply growth has weakened.
- Profit-taking from long-term holders: Investors who bought BTC under $50,000 are starting to take profits.
Long-Term Bullish Projections
Despite short-term headwinds, many experts believe that Bitcoin remains on track for significant gains. Some analysts predict BTC could reach $160,000 to $180,000 in the next bull cycle, fueled by:
- ETF-driven institutional demand
- Bitcoin’s upcoming halving event in April 2025
- Broader adoption by global financial institutions
Conclusion: Bitcoin Faces Short-Term Challenges but Long-Term Optimism Remains
While Bitcoin’s current price action is causing uncertainty, its long-term fundamentals remain strong. Institutional accumulation, Bitcoin ETF adoption, and macroeconomic trends all point to a potential price surge in the future.
However, short-term selling pressures, including FTX creditor liquidations and limited liquidity inflows, could keep BTC range-bound for the next few months. Investors should closely monitor ETF flows and on-chain data to gauge when Bitcoin’s next major rally might begin.
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