Billionaire Ray Dalio is worried Trump’s tariff war could spark ‘something worse’ than a recession

Ray Dalio Warns Trump’s Tariff War Risks Pushing U.S. Toward Recession or Worse

Summary in 10 Key Points:

1. Ray Dalio, billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that the United States is “very close to a recession” due to President Trump’s tariff policies, speaking during an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press.
2. Dalio expressed concern that mishandling the economic landscape could result in “something worse than a recession”, referencing the broader consequences of rising geopolitical tensions and economic disruption.
3. Dalio, known for accurately predicting the 2008 financial crisis, joins a growing list of major Wall Street figures alarmed by the fallout from ongoing trade tensions.
4. He likened the tariffs to “throwing rocks into the production system,” describing Trump’s current approach as “very disruptive” to global supply chains and economic stability.
5. Dalio emphasized that whether tariffs are implemented in a “stable” or “chaotic and disruptive” manner will significantly influence the broader economic impact.
6. Trump’s trade agenda, aimed at reshoring U.S. manufacturing and increasing tax revenue, has instead triggered global market volatility and increased the risk of economic slowdown.
7. Trump recently declared a 90-day pause on all reciprocal tariffs, excluding those on Chinese imports, which have escalated to a 145% tariff rate, while select Chinese electronics are exempt from the increase but still face a 20% levy.
8. Goldman Sachs now estimates a 45% probability of a U.S. recession within the next year. Previously, the firm saw recession as its “base case” scenario before Trump’s tariff reprieve.
9. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said trade-related uncertainty is restricting clients’ decision-making abilities, warning of “material risks to the U.S. and global economy.”
10. Dalio, who has a net worth of $16 billion per Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index, underscores the urgency of policy stability to avoid major economic dislocation.

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